Forex Fundamentals·Fundamental Analysis for Forex
Reading the Economic Calendar
Your Daily Roadmap for Forex Trading
The economic calendar lists every scheduled data release, central bank speech, and market event that could move prices. Checking it before you trade is as essential as checking the weather before leaving the house. Professional traders plan their entire day around the calendar — they know exactly what's coming, when it's coming, and which currencies will be affected.
The calendar is not just a list of events — it's a risk management tool. It tells you when to be cautious (before high-impact events), when to wait (during the release), and when to act (after the dust settles). Ignoring the calendar is one of the most common reasons beginners get stopped out of trades that would have otherwise been winners.
Where to find it
Markitel has a built-in economic calendar on the Events page. You can filter by impact level (high, medium, low) and by country to focus only on events relevant to your trades. You can also set push notifications for high-impact events.
How to Read a Calendar Event
Anatomy of a Calendar Event
- 1
Time
When the data will be released. Always shown in your local timezone on Markitel. Major US releases are typically at 8:30 AM or 10:00 AM Eastern.
- 2
Currency / Country Flag
Which currency will be affected. A US flag / USD means this release impacts all USD pairs. A EUR flag means EUR pairs.
- 3
Impact Level
High (red), Medium (orange), or Low (yellow). High-impact events can move markets 30-100+ pips. Low-impact events rarely move markets. Focus your attention on high-impact events.
- 4
Event Name
What data is being released. Examples: 'CPI m/m' means monthly CPI change. 'Employment Change' is the jobs report. 'FOMC Statement' is the Fed's rate decision.
- 5
Forecast
What analysts expect. This is the consensus estimate and is already priced into the market. This is the number you compare the actual against.
- 6
Previous
Last period's value. Sometimes revised when the new data comes out. Useful for understanding the trend — is the economy accelerating or decelerating?
- 7
Actual
The real number, revealed at the release time. Compare this to the forecast. Actual > Forecast = positive surprise. Actual < Forecast = negative surprise.
A Sample Trading Week — Calendar in Action
Let's walk through what a typical high-impact week looks like on the economic calendar, so you can see how professional traders plan around events.
| Day | Time (ET) | Event | Impact | Currency | Trading Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 10:00 AM | ISM Manufacturing PMI | High | USD | Sets the tone for USD for the week |
| Tuesday | 4:30 AM | UK CPI y/y | High | GBP | Could shift BoE rate expectations; affects all GBP pairs |
| Wednesday | 2:00 PM | FOMC Rate Decision + Statement | Very High | USD | The biggest event of the week — expect volatility on all USD pairs starting at 2 PM |
| Wednesday | 2:30 PM | Fed Press Conference | Very High | USD | Forward guidance from the Fed Chair — often more impactful than the decision itself |
| Thursday | 8:30 AM | US Jobless Claims + GDP | High | USD | Two reports at once — combined impact on USD |
| Friday | 8:30 AM | US NFP + Unemployment Rate | Very High | USD | The week's finale — massive volatility expected, spreads will widen |
NFP + FOMC in the same week
Occasionally, the FOMC rate decision and NFP fall in the same week. This is the most volatile week of the month. Many professional traders reduce their position sizes during these weeks or sit out entirely. As a beginner, consider paper-trading-only during these ultra-high-impact weeks until you understand how the market reacts.
Building a Daily Trading Routine Around the Calendar
Professional traders check the calendar at the same time every day — usually before the market opens in their timezone. Here's a simple routine you can follow that takes less than 10 minutes but dramatically improves your trading results.
Daily Calendar Routine (10 Minutes)
- 1
Morning scan (2 min)
Open the Markitel calendar and filter for high-impact events. Note the times and which currencies are affected. Mark the events on your phone calendar if needed.
- 2
Identify danger zones (2 min)
Are any high-impact events happening during your planned trading window? If so, decide: trade before the event, wait until after, or skip that pair entirely for the day.
- 3
Check overnight moves (2 min)
Did any events during the Asian or London session already move your pairs significantly? Check if the price action was in line with the data.
- 4
Plan your trades (3 min)
Based on the calendar, which pairs have the clearest setups today? Which pairs should you avoid? Write down your plan: pair, direction, key levels, and any events to watch.
- 5
Set alerts (1 min)
Use Markitel notifications to alert you 15 minutes before high-impact releases. Also set price alerts at key levels near your planned entries.
The 30-minute rule
After a high-impact release, wait at least 30 minutes before entering a trade. The initial spike is often driven by algorithms and can reverse. The real directional move usually emerges after the first half hour as institutional traders digest the data and position accordingly.
Calendar Events vs Technical Analysis
A common question beginners ask: should I use the calendar (fundamentals) or charts (technicals)? The answer is both. The calendar tells you WHEN volatility will hit and in WHICH direction (based on the data surprise). Charts tell you WHERE the best entry and exit levels are. The most profitable trades combine both: a fundamental catalyst with a clean technical setup.
A
Calendar-First Approach
- Check the calendar for upcoming high-impact events
- Form a directional bias based on economic expectations
- Use the chart to find a good entry level in that direction
- Best for: swing trades, positional trades, news traders
- Strength: aligned with the macro narrative
- Risk: technical levels may not be ideal at the time of the news
B
Chart-First Approach
- Find clean technical setups on the chart first
- Check the calendar to ensure no high-impact events will disrupt the trade
- Enter based on technical levels, use the calendar defensively
- Best for: day trades, scalps, technical pattern traders
- Strength: precise entry and exit levels
- Risk: may be trading against the fundamental tide
Combining the calendar with technical analysis
You notice on the calendar that US CPI is coming in hotter than expected lately. You form a bullish USD bias. On the EUR/USD chart, you see a bearish descending triangle forming with support at 1.0850. Your plan: if CPI beats expectations again, sell the break below 1.0850 with a stop above the triangle at 1.0900 and target 1.0750. The calendar gives you the catalyst; the chart gives you the exact levels.
Knowledge check
UK GDP actual is 0.1% versus a forecast of 0.3%. What does this mean for GBP?
Knowledge check
Why should you wait 30 minutes after a major news release before trading?