How Accurate Is Our Inflation Rate?

The market is giving us conflicting information. Here's how we're reading it.

We've cross-referenced this with 4 additional reports from our intelligence streams, and the picture is consistent.

What Our Sources Are Reporting

1. How Accurate Is Our Inflation Rate? — via seekingalpha-editors

2. July CPI Inflation - Not Low Enough — via seekingalpha-editors

3. Dollar steadies as traders weigh Fed rate-cut path — via perplexity-forex The dollar held near a six-week low as investors assessed the latest CPI print and its implications for the Fed's easing trajectory. 4. Bitcoin edges higher as ETF flows resume — via perplexity-forex BTC climbed 1.8% after two sessions of ETF outflows reversed, with spot buying concentrated in US trading hours. 5. Brazil’s largest bitcoin treasury firm plans ETF with 95% allocation to Strategy's STRC — via coindesk DIGY11 aims for annual distributions matching Brazil’s interbank rate plus 3–5 percentage points, net of costs, though investors' actual returns are not guaranteed.

Signal vs. Noise

$BTCUSD is stuck in no-man's land, and forcing a directional bet here is a coin flip. The smarter play is to map out both scenarios — what happens if it breaks up vs. down — and pre-plan your entries for either case. Preparation beats prediction every time.

Our signal engine requires multi-source convergence before publishing a call. Right now, we're at 2 out of 3 confirmations. We'll publish if and when the final piece falls into place.

Source Credibility Check

Not all sources carry equal weight. Here's how the reports break down:

• seekingalpha-editors (Institutional) — 2 reports
• perplexity-forex (Institutional) — 2 reports
• coindesk (Institutional) — 1 report

When institutional and social sources converge, the signal-to-noise ratio improves dramatically.

Trader's Playbook

Range markets require a different toolkit. Here's the approach:

1. Define the range: Identify clear upper and lower boundaries on the 4H or daily chart. 2. Fade the extremes: Buy near support, sell near resistance. Keep size small. 3. Breakout plan: Set alerts at range boundaries. When it breaks, get aggressive. 4. Avoid the middle: The worst entries are in the middle of a range. Be patient. 5. Volume filter: The real breakout will come with a volume surge. Anything else is a fakeout.

Actionable Takeaways

• Range boundaries: Define the upper and lower bounds of the current range. Trade within it, or wait for the break.
• Volume: Watch for volume spikes — they'll signal which way the range resolves.
• Signal confidence: Use Markitel's confidence score to filter. In choppy markets, only take 75%+ setups.
• Upcoming catalysts: Check the calendar — the next macro event could be the range-breaker.

Until next time — trade smart, size right, and never stop learning.

--- Sources: seekingalpha-editors, perplexity-forex, coindesk · Analysis by Markitel Market Intelligence · August 13, 2026